yield curve形状及phase

NO.PZ202206070100000404 问题如下 Tolliver’s statement is most likely: A.correct. B.incorrewith the phase of the business cycle. C.incorrewith regarto monetary policy. SolutionA is correct. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle. Also, consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative. B is incorrect. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle.C is incorrect. Consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.本题考查的是不同经济阶段收益率曲线的特点A是正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。此外，与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致的是，货币政策正变得缺少刺激性。B是不正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。C是不正确的。与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致，货币政策正变得不那么具有刺激性。 请问老师，这个意思表达了短期利率上升多于长期利率，怎么判断出描述的是yielcurve变陡峭呢。因为只有在收益率曲线本身平坦的基础上，才能得出这个结论。但题目并没有给这个前提。而且老师讲课时说，正常在slow wn阶段，收益率曲线inverte短期利率大于长期利率），然后在contraction阶段，由于货币政策刺激，短期利率会下降多于长期，收益率曲线重新变得陡峭（短期利率小于长期利率），并一直延续到initirecovery。其后在货币政策逐渐退出宽松时，从initirecovery开始再由陡峭逐渐变平坦。如果按照这个逻辑判断，在initirecovery的前一个阶段，收益率曲线已经重新变得陡峭（短期利率小于长期利率）了，这个时候，短期利率上升多于长期利率，应该是收益率曲线变平坦才对。

NO.PZ202206070100000404 问题如下 Tolliver’s statement is most likely: A.correct. B.incorrewith the phase of the business cycle. C.incorrewith regarto monetary policy. SolutionA is correct. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle. Also, consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative. B is incorrect. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle.C is incorrect. Consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.本题考查的是不同经济阶段收益率曲线的特点A是正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。此外，与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致的是，货币政策正变得缺少刺激性。B是不正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。C是不正确的。与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致，货币政策正变得不那么具有刺激性。 在经济早期扩张阶段，应该是政府还没有采取紧缩的货币政策吧。我记得课程里说的是 由于货币政策是有滞后性的，所以经济恢复的初期，政府应该是继续保持之前宽松的货币政策，然后等到late expansion的时候才开始减少stimulus?

NO.PZ202206070100000404问题如下Tolliver’s statement is most likely:A.correct.B.incorrewith the phase of the business cycle.C.incorrewith regarto monetary policy. SolutionA is correct. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle. Also, consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative. B is incorrect. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle.C is incorrect. Consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.本题考查的是不同经济阶段收益率曲线的特点A是正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。此外，与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致的是，货币政策正变得缺少刺激性。B是不正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。C是不正确的。与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致，货币政策正变得不那么具有刺激性。 之前老师讲课时只说了收益率曲线变平或变陡峭，但是没有指出是短端还是长端，根据这个题目，老师说的收益率曲线是否就可以理解为是短端的收益率变化？后续做类似题目时就看短端收益率变化来判断经济周期？

NO.PZ202206070100000404 问题如下 Tolliver’s statement is most likely: A.correct. B.incorrewith the phase of the business cycle. C.incorrewith regarto monetary policy. SolutionA is correct. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle. Also, consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative. B is incorrect. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle.C is incorrect. Consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.本题考查的是不同经济阶段收益率曲线的特点A是正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。此外，与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致的是，货币政策正变得缺少刺激性。B是不正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。C是不正确的。与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致，货币政策正变得不那么具有刺激性。 老师请问，less stimulative是指monetary policy变得loose吗？这题的解题思路是否可以从taylor rule入手？起始rate是1.23%，taylor rule计算出来的目标利率是2%，利率需要提升，monetary policy需要变得restrictive.

NO.PZ202206070100000404 问题如下 Minglu Li Case ScenarioRE Partners specializes in forecasting anconsulting in particulsectors of the equity market. Minglu Li is one of the company’s analysts specializing in the consumer cret instry. A new consumer cret mechanism wbeing testeon a small scale using a smartphone application to pfor items insteof the trationcret car The application hprovesuccessful in the use of microloans in veloping countries anwnow being applieto a mubroar consumer base. The new challenge for Li’s teis to velop a mol for the expectereturn for these new consumer cret companies, whiare calle“smart cret” companies because they combine the consumer cret instry anwhhtrationally been consirethe telecommunications instry.Although smart cret company returns ta are sparse, a five-yemonthly equally weighteinx callethe “Smart Cret Inx” (SCI) wcreatefrom the existing companies’ returns tThe number of companies in the inx a given time varies because of firms failing analso merging over time.Li’s tealso examines survey ta projecting the future performanof the consumer cret antelecommunications instries over the same time periofor whithe actuperformanta wcollecte They founthprojections in the survey ta tento more volatile ththe actuperformant However, Li’s tecinot to make any austments to the survey ta because a finitive procere coulnot termineGiven the effeof short-term interest rates on consumer cret, Li’s tecis to termine whthe short-term interest rate is expecteto in the future. The centrbank’s last officistatement intifie2.5% the appropriate rate, assuming no other factors. Li’s tethen estimates potentifactors thmmake the centrbank behave fferently from the 2.5% rate in the statement, shown in Exhibit 1.Exhibit 1 EstimateCentrBank FactorsBaseon Taylor’s rule, with assumption of equweights applieto forecast versus trenmeasures, the short-term rate is expecteto increase from the current 1.23%, anthe yielcurve is expecteto flatten for longer maturities.For further insight, Li cis to consult in-house expert on centrbanking, Ran Tolliver. Tolliver states the economy is likely in the early expansion phase of the business cycle baseon the yielcurve anconsistent with this phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.Question Tolliver’s statement is most likely: A.correct. B.incorrewith the phase of the business cycle. C.incorrewith regarto monetary policy. SolutionA is correct. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle. Also, consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative. B is incorrect. The yielcurve is becoming steeper for short-term rates anflattening for longer-term rates whiis consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle.C is incorrect. Consistent with the early expansion phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.本题考查的是不同经济阶段收益率曲线的特点A是正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。此外，与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致的是，货币政策正变得缺少刺激性。B是不正确的。短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓，这与商业周期的早期扩张阶段相一致。C是不正确的。与商业周期早期扩张阶段一致，货币政策正变得不那么具有刺激性。 老师，请问在商业周期的早期扩张阶段， 短期利率的收益率曲线变得陡峭，长期利率的收益率曲线趋于平缓？这个还分短期利率收益率曲线和长期利率的收益率曲线么，之前学的都是一条收益率曲线在早期扩张阶段变平坦