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Ykit · 2022年06月21日

A选择没看懂

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


NO.PZ2018091706000061

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

A选项是在是在说什么呢

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年06月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


我们先看一下这道题涉及的知识点,理解知识点后再解答A选项的问题。


这道题涉及知识点,是在基础班讲义67页,考点是The Impact of Balance of Payments Flows


解释一下:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 - 风险溢价之差。


可以这样理解:

就是说对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对实际利率和风险溢价进行区分,


实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。

如果风险溢价比较高,意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。


强化班的话,是在第9页,BOP对汇率的影响,红框部分。




再看A选项,把问题连起来看:

 the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 


代入公式理解:

 the exchange rate for the EM currency就是公式里的


long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency就是公式里的


升值的时候,也是升值。所以A选项错误。



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