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李梦璐 · 2022年06月11日

资本管制有效性为什么不取决于外汇储备水平呢?

NO.PZ2018091706000057

问题如下:

If the emerging market country used capital controls instead, this approach would:

选项:

A.

lead to a less independent monetary policy

B.

be more likely to succeed when capital flows are less persistent

C.

require that the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to FX market turnover be high

解释:

Although the empirical evidence is mixed, to a large extent the relativesuccess of capital controls depends on the magnitude and persistence of the capitalinflows that the policymakers are trying to resist (the less persistent, the higher theeffectiveness). A successful capital control policy tends to increase, not decrease,monetary policy independence. As a regulatory measure, capital controls do not dependdirectly on the level of foreign exchange reserves.

解析:尽管经验证据好坏参半,但在很大程度上,资本管控的有效力取决于政策制定者试图抵御的资本流入的规模和持续性(持续性越弱,有效性越高)。所以B选项正确。

一个成功的资本管控政策倾向于增加而不是减少货币政策的独立性。所以A选项错误。

作为一项监管措施,资本管制并不直接取决于外汇储备水平。所以C选项错误。


老师,能详细解释下为什么C不对么

2 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年06月13日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


所以靠外汇储备在市场上干预汇率这种不算是外汇管制是么?我以为外汇管制有两种形式,一种直接规定,另一种在市场上操控。

同学这样理解外汇干预有两种方式:一是在行政命令上做资本管制,二是央行直接砸钱干预。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年06月12日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


资本管制有效性为什么不取决于外汇储备水平呢

资本管制是指限制资本的流动,是一种行政手段。

外汇储备可以用于在市场波动较大时入场干预,体现了央行干预外汇市场的能力。

举个例子:就比如股市。

一个是设置规则,直接不让上桌玩了,敢做空的就抓起来(资本管制)。

一个是大玩家亲自下场玩,干预市场走向,如市场下跌时,政府资本直接进场救市。(外汇储备)


其他知识点:三元悖论的角度去理解。


资本自由流动,独立的货币政策,固定汇率,三者不可兼得。


A选项:既然资本限制流动(也就是资本管制),那自然那会更加独立。而不是更不独立。lead to a less independent monetary policy,不对。

B选项:政策越有效,资本流入的规模和持续性越短,正确。

C选项:资本管制并不要求外汇储备水平,不选C。


强化讲义11页


基础讲义88页第一段:资本管制和直接交易,都是政府影响外汇市场的手段。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

李梦璐 · 2022年06月12日

所以靠外汇储备在市场上干预汇率这种不算是外汇管制是么?我以为外汇管制有两种形式,一种直接规定,另一种在市场上操控。

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