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李灰灰 · 2022年05月29日

怎么从题目里看出来是问的中短期还是长期呢?做这道题的时候不知道用IRP的知识点还是用real exchange rate的知识点

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


题目里也有nominal rate,很容易误导成用IRP的知识点

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年05月29日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate


这句话说货币更容易受到全球经济影响。IRP是无套利均衡,衡量利率差异与即期远期汇率差异之间的关系,与全球经济关系并不大。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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