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saimeiei · 2022年05月26日

负利率为什么会改变模型

NO.PZ2018122701000065

问题如下:

A risk manager is pricing a 10-year call option on 10-year Treasury using a successfully tested pricing model. Current interest rate volatility is high and the risk manager is concerned about the effect this may have on short-term rates when pricing the option. Which of the following actions would best address the potential for negative short-term interest rates to arise in themodel?

选项:

A.

The risk manager uses a normal distribution of interest rates.

B.

When short-term rates are negative, the risk manager adjusts the risk-neutral probabilities.

C.

When short-term rates are negative, the risk manager increases the volatility.

D.

When short-term rates are negative, the risk manager sets the rate to zero.

解释:

D is correct.

考点 Interest Rate Tree (Binominal) Model

解析 Negative short-term interest rates can arise in models for which the terminal distribution of interest rates follows a normal distribution. The existence of negative interest rates does not make much economic sense since market participants would generally not lend cash at negative interest rates when they can hold cash and earn a zero return. One method that can be used to address the potential for negative interest rates when constructing interest rate trees is to set all negative interest rates to zero. This localizes the change in assumption s to points in the distribution corresponding to negative interest rates and preserves the original rate tree for all other observations. In comparison, adjusting the risk neutral probabilities would alter the dynamics across the entire range of interest rates and therefore not be an optimal approach.

When a model displays the potential for negative short-term interest rates, it can still be a desirable model to use in certain situations, especially in cases where the valuation depends more on the average path of the interest rate, such as in valuing coupon bonds. Therefore, the potential for negative rates does not automatically rule out the use of the model.

如果是用二叉树,那么利率为负为什么要调整模型呢,不可以用了吗

2 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2022年05月28日

现在是有负利率的国家,不过也是-0.0几那种很贴近0的,不会说名义利率出来个-1%,-2%的。

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2022年05月27日

同学你好,因为常规情况下,实际利率可能有负的,但是名义利率负的还是挺少见的,所以不符常理的情况要调整。

saimeiei · 2022年05月28日

我理解,应该有些国家是负利率的,而且即使在二叉树模型里,负利率也是可以用的吧,只是折现后变大而已

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NO.PZ2018122701000065 这题没看懂,麻烦解答一下

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