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moon · 2022年05月26日

A higher forward premium for INR/USD,代表F>S,则未来USD会升值,如果它在USD借钱,未来要还的钱更多,这不是个好事情,所以不应该选择B?

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NO.PZ201601050100000303

问题如下:

3. Which of the following market developments would be most favorable for Subscriber 3's trading plan?

选项:

A.

A narrower interest rate differential.

B.

A higher forward premium for INR/USD.

C.

Higher volatility in INR/USD spot rate movements.

解释:

B is correct.

Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, based on the historical evidence that the forward rate is not the center of the distribution for the spot rate. Applying this bias involves buying currencies selling at a forward discount and selling currencies trading at a forward premium. So a higher forward premium on the lower yielding currencythe USD, the base currency in the INR/USD quotewould effectively reflect a more profitable trading opportunity. That is, a higher premium for buying or selling the USD forward is associated with a lower US interest rate compared to India. This would mean a wider interest rate differential in favor of Indian instruments, and hence potentially more carry trade profits.

A is incorrect because Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy depends on a wide interest rate differential between the high-yield country (India) and the low-yield country (the United States). The differential should be wide enough to compensate for the unhedged currency risk exposure.

C is incorrect because a guide to the carry trade‘s riskiness is the volatility of spot rates on the involved currencies, with rapid movements in exchange rates often associated with a panicked unwinding of carry trades. All things being equal, higher volatility is worse for carry trades.

中文解析:

B选项:higher forward premium或者表述为larger forward premium,是两国利差变大的意思,所以在carry trade中看到这个表述就直接等同为两国利差变大。

可以从下面这个角度来理解:

(1)我们可以用covered interest rate parity(抛补的利率平价公式)来解释,根据. covered interest rate parity:F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B) (汇率标价形式为A/B); 其中r_A

(2)得到F

(3)所以,如果F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B)这个公式中r_A

2. 执行carry trade的条件有二,一是两国利差大,二是汇率变化很小。因此A选项和C选项的表述是错误的

B答案:A higher forward premium for INR/USD,代表F>S,则未来USD会升值,如果它在USD借钱,未来要还的钱更多,这不是个好事情,所以不应该选择B?

1 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年05月27日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好

是这样哈,首先这里的higher forward premium是表示两国利差变大的意思,至于为什么表示这个意思,解析中有提供两个角度的理解哈。

然后如同学说的,这表示USD将来会升值,但是我们是借USD,那么USD升值对我们是不利的。这其实和carry trade策略本身有关系,carry trade策略也可以叫做套利策略,因为是赚取两国的利差嘛,而套利策略存在的时间是非常短的,在低利率币种升值之前就会结束掉这个策略的。因为我们说该策略成立的一个重要条件就是两国的汇率要稳定,如果USD升值了,说明汇率已经不稳定啦,不适合采取这个策略了,从这个角度也可以判断在USD升值之前这个策略就结束了。所以同学担心的这个问题是不存在的哈。

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