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蛋黄也酥酥 · 2022年05月19日

illusion of knowledge

  1. CFA III
  2. Behavioral Finance

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201511190100000306

问题如下：

Which one of the following biases did Jordan not demonstrate?

选项：

A.

Self-attribution.

B.

Representativeness.

C.

Illusion of knowledge.

解释：

B is correct.

Nowhere in the scenario did it mention that Jordan classified certain information into a personalized category. Representativeness bias is a cognitive bias in which people tend to classify new information based on past experiences and classifications. Jordan is not relating the certainty about the future or her decision to hold losing positions back to something she has done or experienced in the past.

这个bias感觉没讲过，也很少考到。这道题哪里体现了呢

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1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2022年05月21日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


1）这个bias感觉没讲过，也很少考到。

请参考基础班讲义 P43

Illusion of knowledge，是指是高估了知识水平、能力和信息获取的结果。例如，人们通常在估计概率方面做得很差，但却认为自己做得很好，因为他们认为自己比实际情况更聪明，更了解情况

我们一般提到 Illusion of knowledge，是因为它和 self-attribution 会造成 Overconfidence，所以是在介绍 Overconfidence 时提到的

"Illusion of knowledge and self-attribution biases contribute to the overconfidence bias"

2）这道题哪里体现了呢

倒数第二段，She reassures the team that this strategy has performed well in the past and that the markets will revert and the fund’s returns will return to normal levels.

从关键词 reassure 判断，其反映的偏差是过度自信中的 certainty overconfidence

由于过于肯定自己的判断而赋予结果的概率过高时，就会出现确定性过度自信

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

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NO.PZ201511190100000306问题如下Whione of the following biases Jorn not monstrate? A.Self-attribution. B.Representativeness. C.Illusion of knowlee. B is correct.Nowhere in the scenario it mention thJorn classifiecertain information into a personalizecategory. Representativeness biis a cognitive biin whipeople tento classify new information baseon past experiences anclassifications. Jorn is not relating the certainty about the future or her cision to hollosing positions bato something she hne or experiencein the past.A在哪里体现了？

2022-04-19 22:05 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201511190100000306 一方面，通过representativeness bias与conservatism bias的辨析来学习，可以理解较透彻，Base-rate negleansample-size neglect也能理解地很好。对于此题而言，如果representativeness bias是对新信息overreact，那么文中主人公对价格反转的坚信，就算表现了什么，也应该是conservatism bias。 另一方面，教材对representativeness bias的定义又看得很难受，people tento classify new information baseon past experiences anclassifications，一下子搞得文中主人公的行为似乎也符合这种定义。 所以，真的是对representiveness bias很晕

2022-01-11 15:09 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201511190100000306 Representativeness. Illusion of knowlee. B is correct. Nowhere in the scenario it mention thJorn classifiecertain information into a personalizecategory. Representativeness biis a cognitive biin whipeople tento classify new information baseon past experiences anclassifications. Jorn is not relating the certainty about the future or her cision to hollosing positions bato something she hne or experiencein the past.请问老师，他说策略之前表现的好为什么没有represenetatives呢？

2021-12-21 08:45 2 · 回答

NO.PZ201511190100000306 倒数第二段She reassures the teththis strategy hperformewell in the past anththe markets will revert anthe funs returns will return to normlevels.这句话就表明了jorn根据过去的经验判断未来啊

2021-07-10 21:57 1 · 回答