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moon · 2022年05月07日

但是不太明白,为什么认为货币A会贬值,就要么不投资,要么不hedge? 不是应该:A国的收益率高,所以投资A国,但是担心汇率下降,所以用hedge方式来锁定汇率

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NO.PZ202112010200000704

问题如下:

Which of the following statements best describes the forward rate bias?

选项:

A.

Investors tend to favor fixed-income investments in currencies that trade at a premium on a forward basis.

B.

Investors tend to hedge fixed-income investments in higher-yielding currencies given the potential for lower returns due to currency depreciation.

C.

Investors tend to favor unhedged fixed-income investments in higher-yielding currencies that are sometimes enhanced by borrowing in lower-yielding currencies.

解释:

C is correct.

Forward rate bias is defined as an observed divergence from interest rate parity conditions under which active investors seek to benefit by borrowing in a lower-yield currency and investing in a higher-yield currency.

A is incorrect since lower-yielding currencies trade at a forward premium. B is incorrect due to covered interest rate parity; fully hedged foreign currency fixed-income investments will tend to yield the domestic risk-free rate.

老师关于B选项之前的回答

B选项:还是假设A/B的汇率表达形式,A代表高利率,B代表低利率。B选项说投资者投资A,担心未来A的汇率贬值,那么会用forward currency rate来hedge,也就是covered interest parity所表达的意思。根据covered interest parity,跨国投资是无利可图的,所以,如果投资者认为未来A会贬值,那么也会有两种操作,一是A贬值到无利可图,那么投资者就不会做这个跨国投资了,所以谈不上hedged investment;如果未来虽然贬值,但考虑汇率调整后的RDC只要仍大于在本国投资的收益,投资者也会继续投资同时不用forward currency rate来hedge,仍然unhedged,所以,B的表述也是不正确的。】


但是不太明白,为什么认为货币A会贬值,就要么不投资,要么不hedge?

不是应该:A国的收益率高,所以投资A国,但是担心汇率下降,所以用hedge方式来锁定汇率,这样更保险啊

2 个答案

pzqa015 · 2023年05月18日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


但是不太明白,为什么认为货币A会贬值,就要么不投资,要么不hedge?

不是应该:A国的收益率高,所以投资A国,但是担心汇率下降,所以用hedge方式来锁定汇率,这样更保险啊

--


根据RDC=RFC+RFX,货币贬值会导致RFX为负,对RFC有抵消作用。如果进行hedge,那么RDC等于本国投资收益,也就是covered interest parity所描述的,跨国投资与本国投资无异。如果不Hedge,那么RFX取决于未来汇率的变动或者说对汇率的预期。

如果预期货币贬值后,RDC仍大于本国投资利率,那么完全没有hedge的必要。

如果预期货币贬值后,RDC小于本国投资利率,那么就不会做这笔投资。


你说的用Hedge来锁定汇率,是保险,但是获得的收益与在本国投资没有区别了,那么投资者就没有冲动去做跨国投资了。



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pzqa015 · 2022年05月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


B描述的这种方式是covered interest parity,此时,跨国投资与在本国投资没差别,投资者不会做跨国投资,更不会做hedge了。

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fresh · 2023年05月17日

解释的很绕

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