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JoyceZhou · 2024年04月29日

资产成本和贴现率

  1. ESG
  2. Governance factors

NO.PZ2022120702000017

问题如下：

CBT’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) is two months away. Patrick Weeze is a portfolio manager who owns a significant number of CBT shares in his portfolio. His fund is a concentrated portfolio with high idiosyncratic risk and, as a result, Patrick believes that a detailed analysis of the governance of each of his portfolio holdings is paramount to its long-term performance. He reviews the relevant documentation regarding CBT’s AGM and notes the following:

− CBT provides information on the total amount of CEO remuneration, but no detail on the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that influence variable compensation. The CEO’s total compensation last year was GBP 1.2 million, 30% of which comprised fixed salary.

− CBT currently has 10 individuals sitting on its board, 3 of whom are independent. The Chairman is the former CEO who stepped down last year.

− One of the resolutions to be voted at the AGM was put forward by a minority shareholder. The investor asks the company to produce a report on how climate change may affect the company’s strategy and financial stability in the long-term.

Patrick is discussing CBT's financial model with his financial analyst. He asks the analyst to consider how the model may take into account the KPIs for the CEO's variable remuneration which are not disclosed. He is presented with 4 options.

Which one is he most likely to select to implement?

选项：

A.Increase the company's estimated costs for next year by an additional GBP 1.2 million to account for the lack of transparency regarding the KPIs. B.Reduce the company’s current total costs by GBP 360,000, as there are no concerns regarding the fixed salary portion of the compensation. C.Increase the cost of capital from 4.6% to 4.8% to reflect the increased risk stemmed from uncertainty around alignment of interest. D.Decrease the cost of capital from 4.6% to 4.4% to reflect the reduced level of certainty around alignment of interest.

解释：

CBT提供了CEO薪酬总额的信息，但没有提供影响可变薪酬的关键绩效指标(KPI)的细节。可变薪酬关系着高管和利益是否和股东一致，这一部分的信息缺失是负面的，因此要调高估值模型中的资本成本(cost of capital)来体现其投资风险，C选项正确。

我不太明白为什么资产成本就是贴现率

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Tina_品职助教 · 2024年04月30日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


在财务分析中，资本成本（Cost of Capital）通常指的是公司为获得资本（无论是债务还是股权）所需支付的费用。这通常表现为一个百分比，代表投资者为将资金投资于公司而期望获得的回报率。资本成本也被用作贴现率（Discount Rate），用来计算未来现金流的现值（Present Value）。这样，资本成本实际上成为了评估公司价值和投资回报的关键参数。

在这个案例中，Patrick注意到有关公司CEO薪酬结构的关键信息不透明，特别是影响其变动薪酬的关键绩效指标（KPIs）未披露。这种不透明可能导致利益冲突，因为如果CEO的激励与公司长期表现和股东利益不一致，那么可能对公司的表现和股东价值产生负面影响。

在这种情况下，由于管理层薪酬制度的不透明增加了公司的经营风险，Patrick和他的分析师可能会考虑通过调整资本成本来体现这种增加的风险。资本成本的增加意味着在评估公司未来现金流的现值时使用更高的贴现率，这将导致现值计算结果较低，从而反映更高的风险。

选项C中提到的从4.6%调高到4.8%的资本成本就是这个逻辑的体现。增加的资本成本（贴现率）反映了由于关键信息缺失导致的不确定性和风险增加，这样做可以更准确地评估投资的吸引力和风险。

因此，资本成本在这里被用作贴现率，是因为它代表了从投资中期望获得的回报，同时也是评估这种回报与潜在风险之间关系的方法。


资本成本作为贴现率

当评估一个公司的价值时，分析师通常会预测公司未来的现金流量，然后使用一个合适的贴现率将这些未来的现金流折现到现在，以计算其现值。这里使用的贴现率通常是公司的资本成本，因为这反映了资金提供者（股东和债权人）对其投资所期望的回报。使用资本成本作为贴现率的逻辑在于：

  • 风险与回报：投资者将资金投入公司，期望获得与他们所承担风险相匹配的回报。资本成本作为贴现率，确保了对未来现金流的估值反映了这种风险。
  • 机会成本：选择投资于特定公司，投资者放弃了其他潜在的投资机会。因此，贴现率（资本成本）应当至少等于或高于这些被放弃投资机会的预期回报。

例如，如果一家公司的资本成本为10%，这意味着股东和债权人期望从投资这家公司中至少获得10%的回报。在估值模型中，这个10%的资本成本将被用作贴现率来计算公司预期未来现金流的现值。如果未来现金流的现值总和高于公司当前市场价值，这可能表明公司被低估，反之则可能被高估。

通过这种方式，资本成本作为贴现率，帮助投资者评估公司价值，并作出基于风险和回报预期的投资决策。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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